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9/4/2013


NCAA Football

A little shakeup this week, but not much. So much for me thinking Nebraska would be trending upwards. They'll be lucky to stay in the top 25 if they don't find a defense.

Biggest movers:

  1. Georgia, -8
  2. Northwestern, +6
  3. Florida State, +5
  4. Clemson, +4
  5. Nebraska, -4

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Alabama (1594)
  2. Oregon (1381)
  3. Ohio State (1275)
  4. Clemson (1243)
  5. Texas A&M (1231)
  1. Stanford (1206)
  2. South Carolina (1164)
  3. Florida State (1082)
  4. Florida (1021)
  5. LSU (998)
  1. Notre Dame (923)
  2. Georgia (859)
  3. Louisville (830)
  4. Oklahoma State (771)
  5. Oklahoma (705)
  1. Michigan (575)
  2. Texas (473)
  3. Northwestern (391)
  4. UCLA (288)
  5. Washington (263)
  1. Nebraska (256)
  2. Wisconsin (249)
  3. Penn State (238)
  4. Baylor (159)
  5. Miami FL (134)

Dropped out: #19 Kansas State, #21 TCU, #22 Boise State, #23 Oregon State

New: #20 Washington, #22 Wisconsin, #23 Penn State, #25 Miami FL

Also considered: Ole Miss (126), North Dakota St (118), Cincinnati (115), Kansas State (104), Northern Illinois (100), USC (85), TCU (52), San Jose State (50), Oregon State (38), Kent State (25), Michigan State (14), Venderbilt (9), Virginia Tech (7), Missouri (5), Fresno State (1)

Teams at the top that are most likely to drop: Ohio State, Texas A&M. I'm just not ready to jump on the OSU bandwagon quite yet. And I'm not sure where Johnny Manziel's head is.

Teams that look poised to make jumps: Louisville, Michigan. Schedule, schedule, schedule. Louisville's is practically a cakewalk. Michigan has Nebraska and Ohio State at the end of the year.


8/30/2013


NCAA Football

Wow, the season is starting already. Hard to believe. I'm adding a little something to my "If I Had a Vote" segment this year. I do a little mathematical tabulation to come up with these rankings (nothing fancy, not like the computer stuff. More of a way to keep track of some things in my head. So, I will add the grand total I come up with for each team. You can think of it as similar to the "vote count" on your favorite poll.

So, without further ado.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Alabama (1764)
  2. Oregon (1606)
  3. Ohio State (1525)
  4. Georgia (1434)
  5. Texas A&M (1423)
  1. Stanford (1419)
  2. South Carolina (1301)
  3. Clemson (1201)
  4. Florida (1164)
  5. Notre Dame (1115)
  1. Louisville (1032)
  2. LSU (993)
  3. Florida State (986)
  4. Texas (820)
  5. Oklahoma (812)
  1. Oklahoma State (802)
  2. Michigan (724)
  3. Nebraska (535)
  4. Kansas State (503)
  5. UCLA (477)
  1. TCU (453(
  2. Boise State (446)
  3. Oregon State (417)
  4. Northwestern (406)
  5. Baylor (377)

Also considered: USC (340), Wisconsin (316), Miami FL (285), Northern Illinois (252), Vanderbilt (248), Michigan State (243), Utah State (236), Arizona State (230), Cincinnati (225), Ole Miss (219), Arizona (215), San Jose State (213), Penn state (199), Fresno State (199), Mississippi State (183), Missouri, (175), Arkansas State (169), Brigham Young (164), Rutgers (160), Washington (156), North Carolina (153), Virginia Tech (150), Tulsa (150), Kent State (137), UCF (123), Georgia Tech (115), Toledo (115), Arkansas (112), Tennessee (83), East Carolina (13), Ohio (1)

Teams at the top that are most likely to drop: Ohio State, Texas A&M. I'm just not ready to jump on the OSU bandwagon quite yet. And I'm not sure where Johnny Manziel's head is.

Teams that look poised to make jumps: Louisville, Nebraska, Michigan. Schedule, schedule, schedule. Louisville's is practically a cakewalk. Nebraska has UCLA and Michigan. Michigan has Nebraska and Ohio State at the end of the year.


12/18/2012

Site Issues

I had some issues with my hosting provider last week, so the site was down for most of a day. I do apologize for that.


NCAA Men's Basketball

Time for my weekly posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in men's college basketball.

  1. Duke
  2. Syracuse
  3. Michigan
  4. Florida
  5. Louisville
  1. Kansas
  2. Indiana
  3. Arizona
  4. Ohio State
  5. Gonzaga
  1. Minnesota
  2. Cincinnati
  3. Illinois
  4. Creighton
  5. New Mexico
  1. Pittsburgh
  2. UNLV
  3. Wichita State
  4. Oregon
  5. Virginia Commonwealth
  1. Butler
  2. Oklahoma State
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Missouri
  5. North Carolina State

12/11/2012

NCAA Men's Basketball

Time for my weekly posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in men's college basketball.

  1. Duke
  2. Florida
  3. Indiana
  4. Syracuse
  5. Michigan
  1. Louisville
  2. Kansas
  3. Ohio State
  4. Minnesota
  5. Gonzaga
  1. Cincinnati
  2. Arizona
  3. Creighton
  4. Illinois
  5. Wichita State
  1. New Mexico
  2. UNLV
  3. Pittsburgh
  4. Georgetown
  5. Missouri
  1. Oklahoma State
  2. North Carolina State
  3. North Carolina
  4. Notre Dame
  5. Michigan State

Regarding my Composite rating, I've been asked what has to hapen for IU to get to #1? A couple weeks ago, I said that Duke would probably have to lose twice. With Kentucky still looking pedestrian, and IU continuing to look better to the computer, I no longer think that's the case. One loss should do it at this point. In fact, I think that if both Duke and IU are still undefeated at the end of January, IU may take the #1 spot by then. The Hoosiers have really closed the gap over the last few weeks as the computer bases more of it's opinion on this season. We're about two weeks out from throwing out all of last season's data. We'll definitely know more then.


12/6/2012

Apologies

I'm using a web hosting service for this application. They appear to have changed some configuration setting on their server, or perhaps done an update or two. The end result is that the "Save to Excel" and "Print to PDF" functionality on all the grids has been broken. I've been chasing this problem down for the last few days, and I think I finally have a resolution. I deeply apologize for the inconvenience.


12/5/2012

NCAA Football

Time for my weekly posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows. This will be the last update before the bowls. Next year, I may continue to do weekly updates during bowl season. We'll see. But not this year.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Notre Dame
  2. Alabama
  3. Oregon
  4. Florida
  5. Kansas State
  1. Georgia
  2. Texas A&M
  3. Ohio State
  4. Stanford
  5. LSU
  1. South Carolina
  2. Oklahoma
  3. Clemson
  4. Oregon State
  5. Florida State
  1. UCLA
  2. Northern Illinois
  3. Nebraska
  4. Texas
  5. Michigan
  1. Northwestern
  2. Wisconsin
  3. Utah State
  4. San Jose State
  5. Penn State

Also considered: Kent State, USC, Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, Louisville, North Dakota State (FCS), Baylor, Cincinnati, Boise State, Fresno State, Rutgers, San Diego State, Mississippi State, Tulsa, Arizona, Louisiana Tech (Bowl-less!), Arizona State, TCU, North Carolina, Washington, Arkansas State, Ball State, and West Virginia.


12/4/2012

NCAA Men's Basketball

Time for my weekly posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in men's college basketball.

  1. Duke
  2. Indiana
  3. Syracuse
  4. Florida
  5. Michigan
  1. Louisville
  2. Gonzaga
  3. Ohio State
  4. Cincinnati
  5. Kansas
  1. Minnesota
  2. New Mexico
  3. Arizona
  4. Wichita State
  5. Creighton
  1. Illinois
  2. UNLV
  3. Baylor
  4. North Carolina
  5. Notre Dame
  1. Michigan State
  2. Oklahoma State
  3. Missouri
  4. Pittsburgh
  5. San Diego State

Big shake up in this week's ballot. I still have Duke #1, but with Kentucky out of the top 25, their resume is a bit diminished. IU is much closer to #1 than they were just a few days ago. Still, without a loss, I don't see them claiming the #1 spot for at least another few weeks. Their schedule the rest of December is just too soft to make up any ground. I need to see how they play against real competition. When the Big Ten season starts and they play Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State, and Illinois, we will learn just how good these Hoosiers are.


11/28/2012

NCAA Football

Time for my weekly posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Notre Dame
  2. Oregon
  3. Alabama
  4. Florida
  5. Georgia
  1. Kansas State
  2. Ohio State
  3. Texas A&M
  4. Stanford
  5. LSU
  1. South Carolina
  2. Oregon State
  3. Oklahoma
  4. Clemson
  5. Nebraska
  1. UCLA
  2. Florida State
  3. Texas
  4. Oklahoma State
  5. Northern Illinois
  1. Michigan
  2. Kent State
  3. Northwestern
  4. Rutgers
  5. Utah State

Also considered: San Jose St, Penn St, USC, Vanderbilt, TCU, Fresno St, Mississippi St, Louisville, San Diego St, Baylor, Arizona, Cincinnati, Boise St, North Dakota St (yes, I know they are FCS), Arizona St, Louisiana Tech, Ole Miss, Washington, Ball St, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arkansas St, Miami, Michigan State, Toledo, Missouri, Central Florida, Middle Tennessee St, Connecticut.


11/26/2012

NCAA Men's Basketball

Time for my week 1 posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in men's college basketball.

  1. Duke
  2. Syracuse
  3. Indiana
  4. Ohio State
  5. Louisville
  1. Michigan
  2. Gonzaga
  3. Florida
  4. Kentucky
  5. Kansas
  1. Creighton
  2. North Carolina
  3. Cincinnati
  4. Michigan State
  5. Minnesota
  1. Pittsburgh
  2. Wisconsin
  3. Missouri
  4. San Diego State
  5. North Carolina State
  1. Wichita State
  2. New Mexico
  3. California
  4. Alabama
  5. Arizona

See, I told you I would start moving the Hoosiers up. This week was a lot easier. How can you not have Duke #1 right now? They have knocked off everyone's preseason #2, and the team that was #3 in several publications. They clearly have earned the top spot unless you're an AP voter, apparently. This week they face the other preseason #3.


11/20/2012

NCAA Men's Basketball

Time for my week 1 posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in men's college basketball.

  1. Syracuse
  2. Ohio State
  3. Kentucky
  4. Florida
  5. Duke
  1. Louisville
  2. North Carolina
  3. Kansas
  4. Indiana
  5. Michigan State
  1. Michigan
  2. Baylor
  3. Gonzaga
  4. Wisconsin
  5. Missouri
  1. Creighton
  2. Kansas State
  3. Cincinnati
  4. North Carolina State
  5. Colorado
  1. Minnesota
  2. Florida State
  3. Arizona
  4. Alabama
  5. Memphis

It's still a crap shoot. I know everyone has Indiana #1. Maybe it's just impossible for me as a Purdue grad to put them there. :) Never fear, Hoosier fans. I will move them up if they earn it.


11/20/2012

NCAA Football

Time for my weekly posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Alabama
  2. Notre Dame
  3. Oregon
  4. Georgia
  5. Kansas State
  1. Texas A&M
  2. Florida
  3. Ohio State
  4. LSU
  5. Clemson
  1. Stanford
  2. Florida State
  3. Oregon State
  4. UCLA
  5. Oklahoma
  1. South Carolina
  2. Texas
  3. Nebraska
  4. Oklahoma State
  5. Rutgers
  1. Michigan
  2. USC
  3. Mississippi State
  4. Northern Illinois
  5. Northwestern

Also considered: Wisconsin, Utah Stae, Kent State, Louisville, Washington, Arizona, Louisiana Tech, Boise State, San Jose State, Fresno State, Tulsa, Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Baylor, Iowa State, Penn State, TCU, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Arkansas State, Georgia Tech, Middle Tennessee.


11/18 BCS Ratings Release

The sixth week of official BCS Ratings are here. Well, it was a wild weekend. I mentioned several weeks ago, repeatedly, that the undefeated situation would work itself out. It did. Not in the way I expected, but it did. Now Notre Dame and the SEC champ control their own destiny. The other contenders have been whittled down a bit.

Notre Dame has it simple. Just win, baby. Beat USC and get your plane tickets for the title game.

Georgia and Alabama have rivalry games this week before facing off next week in the SEC championship game. If either team can win both of their remaining games, they are in.

Florida needs to beat Florida State this weekend and someone ahead of them to stumble. The easy route is if Notre Dame loses. But that may not be enough. I get the impression that after last year, the voters will do whatever possible to avoid having an all-SEC title game. They also have a shot though if one of the SEC teams loses this week in their rivalry game, and then wins the SEC title.

Oregon still has a shot. They need to win out, and have someone above them lose, and have the voters rebel against Florida. They probably also need UCLA to defeat Stanford this week so that they can play in the Pac-12 title game. Their coach needs to memorize what LSU said in 2007. "We are undefeated in regulation."

Kansas State is most likely done. Even if all the other dominos fall their way, the voters are unlikely to forget the drubbing they took at the hands of Baylor this weekend.

Florida State still has an outside shot. Step 1, beat Florida. Step 2. Hope for some upsets.

LSU can possibly re-enter the discussion, but it would take an incredibly unlikely confluence of events.


11/13/2012

NCAA Men's Basketball

Time for my week 1 posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in men's college basketball.

  1. Ohio State
  2. Kentucky
  3. Syracuse
  4. Kansas
  5. Louisville
  1. Indiana
  2. Duke
  3. North Carolina
  4. Florida
  5. Michigan State
  1. Wisconsin
  2. Baylor
  3. Michigan
  4. Gonzaga
  5. Missouri
  1. Memphis
  2. Marquette
  3. Creighton
  4. North Carolina State
  5. Kansas State
  1. Notre Dame
  2. New Mexico
  3. Cincinnati
  4. St Louis
  5. Georgetown

It's still a crap shoot. I know everyone has Indiana #1. Maybe it's just impossible for me as a Purdue grad to put them there. :) Never fear, Hoosier fans. I will move them up if they earn it.


11/12/2012

NCAA Football

Time for my weekly posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Oregon
  2. Alabama
  3. Kansas State
  4. Notre Dame
  5. Georgia
  1. Texas A&M
  2. Florida
  3. Ohio State
  4. LSU
  5. Clemson
  1. Oregon State
  2. South Carolina
  3. Stanford
  4. Florida State
  5. Oklahoma
  1. Texas
  2. UCLA
  3. Nebraska
  4. USC
  5. Michigan
  1. Wisconsin
  2. Oklahoma State
  3. Mississippi State
  4. Rutgers
  5. Louisiana Tech

Also considered: Texas Tech, Kent State, Washington, Northwestern, Louisville, Northern Illinois, Boise State, Arizona, Fresno State, Utah State, Cincinnati, Central Florida, San Diego State, Toledo, San Jose State, TCU, Tulsa, Penn State, Missouri, Iowa State, Miami FL, Michigan State, Mississippi, BYU, West Virginia, North Carolina, Middle Tennessee State.


11/11/2012

NCAA Football

National Title Chase

No, I don't have the new BCS numbers yet, and I am not going to attempt to project them. I can tell you, however, that this is one of the simplest BCS situations we've ever had.

Oregon: Win out and you play for the title.

Kansas State: Win out and you play for the title.

Notre Dame: Win out and have one of Oregon or Kansas State lose and you play for the title.

Alabama/Georgia: Win out and have two of the undefeated teams lose and you play for the title.

Florida State: Win out and have all three undefeated teams lose, or have two of them lose and have a 2-loss SEC champ, and you play for the title.

That's really it. There are some other scenarios where Clemson might get back into the picture. There are some others where one of the teams above could lose and still play for the title. But both of these are such remote possibilities that they aren't worth considering--yet.

Ohio State: Yes, I know they are ineligible for the BCS title, but an AP title is still remotely possible, if all three of the undefeated teams lose. I think in the end, the Buckeyes still end up behind a 1-loss Georgia/Alabama, if one of those teams ends up holding the glass football, but it's by no means a guarantee.


11/9/2012


NCAA Basketball

Tip-off is today! That means by this time tomorrow, I will have actual scores, and the ratings will be at least partially based upon this season's performance. March is coming up quick!


11/5/2012

NCAA Football

Time for my weekly posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Alabama
  2. Kansas State
  3. Oregon
  4. Notre Dame
  5. Florida
  1. Ohio State
  2. Georgia
  3. Oregon State
  4. Texas A&M
  5. Clemson
  1. LSU
  2. South Carolina
  3. Florida State
  4. Stanford
  5. Oklahoma
  1. UCLA
  2. Texas
  3. Louisville
  4. Nebraska
  5. Mississippi State
  1. Michigan
  2. USC
  3. Rutgers
  4. Northwestern
  5. Louisiana Tech

Also considered: Texas Tech, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Utah State, Northern Illinois, TCU, Toledo, Central Florida, Kent State, Washington, Boise State, Wisconsin, Fresno State, Arizona, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Miami FL, San Diego State, Arizona State, Tulsa, North Carolina, Iowa State, Michigan State, Ohio, BYU, Louisiana-Monroe, Middle Tennessee State.


11/3 BCS Ratings Release

The fourth week of official BCS Ratings are here. Clearly, the Crimson Tide control their own destiny. But, who is likely to face them?

The situation is starting to clarify a bit more. Oregon continues to be in the driver's seat. Win out, and they almost certainly play for the title.

Kansas State needs to keep winning. This may be a problem if Colin Klein is not healthy and 100%. They need impressive wins, and they need him to continue to be the Heisman front runner. If Oregon looks average down the stretch, they can still catch the Ducks in the polls, but they need style points.

Notre Dame is out unless at least two of the teams above them lose.

Florida State still has a chance, but they need lots of help.

Georgia now controls their own destiny in the SEC East. If they can upset Alabama in the SEC championship, and all the dominoes fall their way, they could still be in it. But facing an undefeated Alabama in the SEC title game helps them the most.

Florida still has a chance. But they need Georgia to lose to Auburn. Like Georgia, it's better for them if Alabama keeps winning.

Louisville is in the same place they were last weekend. They have started to move up finally, and they will continue to move up if they keep winning, but even if they can finish undefeated, they will need pretty much all of the undefeated teams ahead of them to lose, and some of the one loss teams as well. Neither the computers nor the voters really like them, and they aren't going to have any marquee games to change either the voters' or the computers' minds.

It's just barely possible that Oregon State can re-enter the discussion. I haven't really worked out what it would take, because it would take quite a bit. Step 1) Win out. Step 2) Don't worry about anything else until step 1 is complete.


There is less than a 12% chance that all four of Alabama, Oregon, Kansas State, and Notre Dame end up undefeated. There is less than a 15% chance that all three of Oregon, Kansas State, and Notre Dame end up undefeated. Things will sort themselves out. They nearly always do.

11/2/2012

NCAA Men's Basketball

Time for my preseason posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in men's college basketball.

  1. Ohio State
  2. Kansas
  3. Kentucky
  4. Louisville
  5. Indiana
  1. Syracuse
  2. Michigan State
  3. North Carolina
  4. Duke
  5. Florida
  1. Michigan
  2. Wisconsin
  3. Memphis
  4. Missouri
  5. Baylor
  1. North Carolina State
  2. Gonzaga
  3. Marquette
  4. Creighton
  5. Cincinnati
  1. Notre Dame
  2. New Mexico
  3. St Louis
  4. Florida State
  5. Wichita State

It's a crap shoot guessing before the season starts. Even my post week 1 ranks will be a lot better. I know everyone has Indiana #1. Maybe it's just impossible for me as a Purdue grad to put them there. :) Never fear, Hoosier fans. I will move them up if they earn it.


10/29/2012

NCAA Football

Time for my weekly posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Alabama
  2. Kansas State
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Oregon
  5. Florida
  1. Ohio State
  2. LSU
  3. Florida State
  4. Oregon State
  5. Georgia
  1. Texas A&M
  2. South Carolina
  3. Stanford
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Clemson
  1. Mississippi State
  2. USC
  3. Texas Tech
  4. Louisville
  5. Arizona
  1. Texas
  2. West Virginia
  3. UCLA
  4. Nebraska
  5. Rutgers

Also considered: Oklahoma State, Northern Illinois, Boise State, Northwestern, Louisiana Tech, Toledo, Kent State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona State, Utah State, Iowa State, Tulsa, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Mississippi, Louisiana-Monroe, Washington, Ohio, North Carolina, TCU, and Western Kentucky.


Call Kansas State, Notre Dame, and Oregon 2a), 2b), and 2c) if you prefer. I'm not convinced any of the three would achieve a 2-0 record in a round robin. LSU is probably too high at #7, but I don't know where else to put them. From #5 on, all the teams have serious flaws.

10/28 BCS Ratings Release

The third week of official BCS Ratings are here. Clearly, the Crimson Tide control their own destiny. But, who is likely to face them?

The situation continues to be fluid. The computers hate Oregon, but the pollsters love them. The computers will eventually start liking them more, but will the voters stick with them? Based on this week, the answer is a tepid "no". They lost a little love from the voters this week. They probably can't afford to lose much more. As for now, they are still the most likely to play for the title, but it's close.

As I said last week, beating Oklahoma was good for the Irish. I do not think they can pass Kansas State if both win out, nor do I think they can hold off Oregon, if both of them win out. Right now, they look like the odd man out at the dance, but it's hard to say. The computers love them, but they are going to lose a little of that love over the next three weeks. And the season ender against USC doesn't have the appeal that it once did. And will have even less appeal should Oregon beat them next week. Things can still go their way, but a little help would certainly be a good thing. An oddity about Notre Dame is that they have now matched Kansas State's best win--at Oklahoma--and may end up matching Oregon's best win--at USC. Although Oregon also has the game at Oregon State, which may end up looking better.

As for Kansas State, they also improved their chances this week. They just need to keep winning and keep looking impressive to keep the voters on board. If they can steal a couple more votes away from Oregon, or even if Notre Dame can, that helps them immensely. Their one downside is that Oregon will get that 13th game, the Pac-12 championship. All the talk about Colin Klein and the Heisman can't hurt their chances either.

LSU can make a major splash by beating Alabama this week in Baton Rouge.

Florida State still has a chance, but they need lots of help.

Georgia now controls their own destiny in the SEC East. If they can upset Alabama in the SEC championship, and all the dominoes fall their way, they could still be in it. I think LSU beating Alabama would be a bad thing for the Bulldogs, as I think Georgia needs to face an undefeated team in the SEC championship to advance.

Florida still has a chance. But they need Georgia to lose. Like Georgia, it's better for them if Alabama keeps winning.

Louisville is in the same place they were last weekend. They have started to move up finally, and they will continue to move up if they keep winning, but even if they can finish undefeated, they will need pretty much all of the undefeated teams ahead of them to lose, and some of the one loss teams as well. They got some help in that department this week from Florida and Oregon State, but they need more. Neither the computers nor the voters really like them, and they aren't going to have any marquee games to change either the voters' or the computers' minds. Rutgers losing this weekend hurts them, as it takes some of the luster off their game with the Scarlet Knights.


There is less than a 6% chance that all four of Alabama, Oregon, Kansas State, and Notre Dame end up undefeated. There is less than a 10% chance that all three of Oregon, Kansas State, and Notre Dame end up undefeated. Things will sort themselves out. They nearly always do.

10/25/2012


NCAA Basketball - Oops

NCAA Women's Basketball tip off is the same day as the men, not the week before. Mea Culpa.


10/23/2012


NCAA Basketball

Tip-off for NCAA Women's Basketball is one week before the men's, Friday, November 2. The schedules are finally mostly loaded. Preseason ratings will appear in the next day or so.

Schedule completeness

Last year, 5,763 games were played in Men's D-I college basketball. There are now 5,176 games in my schedule for this year. Given the huge number of early season and postseason tournaments, I'm not bothered by 600 or so missing games. I may be missing a few actual scheduled games here and there, but these will be added as they are discovered.

For the women, it's about the same. Last year, there were 5,455 games played in Women's D-I college basketball. There are now 4,832 games in my schedule for this year. More games will be added over the next couple of weeks.


10/22/2012

NCAA Football

Time for my weekly posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Alabama
  2. Florida
  3. Oregon
  4. Kansas State
  5. Notre Dame
  1. Oklahoma
  2. LSU
  3. Oregon State
  4. Ohio State
  5. South Carolina
  1. Mississippi State
  2. Florida State
  3. Stanford
  4. Texas Tech
  5. Georgia
  1. USC
  2. Rutgers
  3. Texas A&M
  4. Clemson
  5. Michigan
  1. Wisconsin
  2. Louisville
  3. West Virginia
  4. Louisiana Tech
  5. Boise State

Also considered: TCU, Oklahoma State, Texas, Arizona State, Nebraska, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Ohio, UCLA, Penn State, Cincinnati, North Carolina State, Duke, Tulsa, Arizona, Utah State, Northwestern, Louisiana-Monroe, Tennessee, and Western Kentucky.


10/21 BCS Ratings Release

The second week of official BCS Ratings are here. Clearly, Alabama and Florida control their own destiny. But, who is likely to face the SEC champ?

Last week, I said that I thought it would be Notre Dame, should they win out. This was a bad week for the Irish, though. They struggled against BYU, while Oregon handled Arizona State easily. Worse for Notre Dame, Kansas State's win over West Virginia moved the Wildcats ahead of them in the computers and the polls. Notre Dame will eventually pass KSU in the computers should they both win out, but now there are two teams for Notre Dame to pass in the polls. It's a bit harder for the Irish now. Still, win convincingly at Oklahoma this week, and things will likely change dramatically in their favor. This is their chance to make a big splash.

Oregon is in better shape this week. Kansas State is ahead of them currently, but the Ducks will overtake them if they keep winning. And having Kansas State there gives them more cushion between them and Notre Dame.

Kansas State still probably needs both Oregon and the Irish to lose, but will finish ahead of any one loss team, again, if they win out. It's not out of the question that they could finish ahead of Notre Dame if they both win out.

LSU can still get back in the picture by winning out, as can USC and Oklahoma.

You'd think an undefeated Oregon State would make the title game as well, at least ahead of any one loss team, but it's by no means certain. The computers like the Beavers already, but the voters will have to get on board.

Florida State still has a chance, but they need lots of help.

Mississippi State has plenty of opportunity to prove themselves, and that will start this week when they go to Tuscaloosa to face the Crimson Tide. If they pull off the shocker this week, we will have to re-evaluate their chances.

Georgia has a slight chance still, and it all starts this weekend. They must beat Florida in Jacksonville.

Rutgers and Louisville are in the same place they were last weekend. They will move up a lot if they keep winning, but even assuming one of them can finish undefeated, they will need pretty much all of the undefeated teams ahead of them to lose, and some of the one loss teams as well. In fact, some of the undefeated teams will likely have to lose twice. Neither the computers nor the voters really like any of them, and they aren't going to have any marquee games to change either the voters' or the computers' minds. Cincinnati losing this weekend hurts them both, as it takes some of the lustre off their games with the Bearcats.


10/15/2012

NCAA Football

Time for my weekly posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Alabama
  2. Florida
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Oregon
  5. Kansas State
  1. South Carolina
  2. Oklahoma
  3. Ohio State
  4. Oregon State
  5. LSU
  1. Georgia
  2. USC
  3. Texas Tech
  4. West Virginia
  5. Florida State
  1. Texas A&M
  2. Mississippi State
  3. Stanford
  4. Rutgers
  5. Clemson
  1. Arizona State
  2. Louisville
  3. Cincinnati
  4. Michigan
  5. Louisiana Tech

Also considered: Wisconsin, TCU, Northwestern, Boise State, Iowa State, Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, Penn State, Nebraska, Tulsa, UCLA, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Iowa, Northern Illinois, Nevada, Washington, Louisiana-Monroe, Western Kentucky, Toledo, North Carolina State, and Tennessee.


Initial BCS Ratings Release

The first week of official BCS Ratings are here. Clearly, Alabama and Florida control their own destiny. But, who is likely to face the SEC champ?

I think Notre Dame is the likely opponent, if they win out. The computers already love the Irish, and that's not likely to change. And the voters may end up on their side as well, pushing Oregon out of the #2 spot. It's hard to say. It will be very helpful for the Irish if USC can defeat the Ducks in one of their two likley battles.

Oregon will definitely be in good shape if they win out. It will be a PR battle to win voters minds between the Ducks and the Irish. I think that Notre Dame likely wins that battle, but it's basically a coin flip. Oregon probably needs USC to keep winning, and to beat them twice. Of course, USC beating Notre Dame obviously solves a lot problems.

Kansas State needs both Oregon and the Irish to lose, but will finish ahead of any one loss team, again, if they win out.

LSU and South Carolina can still get back in the picture by winning out, as can USC and Oklahoma.

You'd think an undefeated Oregon State would make the title game as well, at least ahead of any one loss team, but it's by no means certain. The computers like the Beavers already, but the voters will have to get on board.

West Virginia is done, barring a miracle.

Florida State still has a chance, but they need lots of help.

Mississippi State has plenty of opportunity to prove themselves, and will skyrocket up the rankings if they keep winning, but let's be honest with ourselves. It's not going to happen.

Georgia has a slight chance still, but they need help to make the SEC title game, and they can't make the BCS title without the SEC championship.

The Big East undefeated trio of Rutgers, Louisville, and Cincinnati will move up a lot if they keep winning, but even assuming one of them can finish undefeated, they will need pretty much all of the undefeated teams ahead of them to lose, and some of the one loss teams as well. In fact, some of the undefeated teams will likely have to lose twice. Neither the computers nor the voters really like any of them, and they aren't going to have any marquee games to change either the voters' or the computers' minds.

10/10/2012

NFL

As of today, the NFL ratings are bias free. The computer is only looking at games from this season now. Not coincidentally, we have a new #1, the Houston Texans. Also, now that last year's playoffs are no longer being considered, the New England Patriots and New York Giants have plummeted. I imagine both will pick back up relatively quickly, however.

Another side effect is that finally two teams are projected to have a chance at finishing the season undefeated. Not much of one, mind you, but a chance. The Houston Texans are projected to have a 2.1% chance of going 19-0, while the Atlanta Falcons have a 1.18% chance.


10/8/2012

NCAA Football

Get Ready For More Upsets

The top 8 teams in the AP (yes, I know...I said I never look at the AP) are undefeated. 7 of them play this weekend. 6 of those are on the road. The computer says that there's a 13.82% chance they all win this weekend. I think the computer is being generous.

10/8/2012

NCAA Football

Time for my weekly posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Alabama
  2. South Carolina
  3. Oregon
  4. Florida
  5. West Virginia
  1. Notre Dame
  2. Ohio State
  3. Kansas State
  4. LSU
  5. Texas
  1. Georgia
  2. Oregon State
  3. Oklahoma
  4. Stanford
  5. USC
  1. Florida State
  2. Clemson
  3. Texas A&M
  4. Mississippi State
  5. Rutgers
  1. Cincinnati
  2. Arizona State
  3. Iowa State
  4. Louisiana Tech
  5. Baylor

Also considered: Louisville, Michigan, Boise State, TCU, Northwestern, Ohio, Michigan State, Texas Tech, Duke, Oklahoma State, North Carolina State, Nebraska, Penn State, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, San Jose State, Washington, Tennessee, Toledo, UCLA, Tulsa, Louisiana-Monroe, Western Kentucky, and Louisiana-Lafayette.


10/8/2012


NCAA Basketball

Men's schedules should be pretty much complete. There may be one or two more games here and there, but it's essentially done. 14 teams have a measurable chance of finishing the season undefeated. The Kentucky Wildcats lead the field with a 0.14% chance.

I know I said that Women's schedules would be up by now. It's taking a bit longer than I expected. Hopefully this week.


10/5/2012

Well, That Didn't Take Long

I told you yesterday that Alabama would likely reclaim the #1 spot. Today they have. And they haven't even played yet this weekend, nor has Texas. Like the commercials say, "every game counts". USC beat Utah yesterday, and that was enough to push Alabama back on top. I'm honestly not sure exactly why. I don't see any commonality on the schedules that would have led to this. Still, the two teams were very close, and still are. It wouldn't take much to switch the order.

10/4/2012

NCAA Football

As of today, the NCAA Football ratings are bias free. The computer is only looking at games from this season now. Not coincidentally, we have a new #1, the Texas Longhorns. If Alabama keeps winning, they will eventually reclaim the top spot, but Texas should be able to hold on to it for a few more weeks (as long as they keep winning too), as Texas is hitting the meat of their schedule.

10/2/2012


A Word About Time Zones

I spend an inordinate amount of my coding life converting from one time zone to another. You'd think I'd have it down by now. But, every time there's a wrinkle. It would be quite a bit easier without Daylight Savings Time, but it's still a pain. Anyway, in case you didn't notice, I added game times to all the scheduling information last week. These game times should be in your local time zone. Will they actually be? God only knows. Let me know if you see something amiss.


10/1/2012


NCAA Basketball

Men's schedules and preseason ratings are up. There are still some non-conference games missing for some teams. These gaps will be filled over the next month as more information becomes available. Women's schedules will be coming later this week.


10/1/2012

NCAA Football

Time for my weekly posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Alabama
  2. Oregon
  3. Georgia
  4. Florida State
  5. LSU
  1. South Carolina
  2. Florida
  3. West Virginia
  4. Texas
  5. Notre Dame
  1. Kansas State
  2. Ohio State
  3. Oregon State
  4. Stanford
  5. Clemson
  1. TCU
  2. USC
  3. Mississippi State
  4. Texas A&M
  5. Rutgers
  1. Oklahoma
  2. Louisville
  3. Nebraska
  4. Washington
  5. Northwestern

Also considered: Texas Tech, UCLA, Baylor, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Boise State, Miami FL, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Purdue, Tennessee, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Toledo, Louisiana-Monroe, Tulsa, Virginia Tech, and San Jose State.


10/1/2012


NCAA Basketball

Tip-off for NCAA Men's Basketball is my birthday, Friday, November 9. I'll be loading the schedules for this season during the week. This may cause the basketball section to be offline occasionally over the next few days. I'll let you know when the schedules are completely loaded.


9/26/2012


Hey, I thought the name of this place was CJB Ratings. What happened?

Yes. I have decided to use the Sports-Gazer name as I have a couple other projects in mind that will be using some of the same code, and will also fit under the -Gazer moniker. This gives me consistency of naming, and the name is a bit more descriptive. The old url of www.cjbratings.com still works, as does www.sports-gazer.com.

So, it's the same old site, just with a new name. Enjoy.


9/24/2012


NCAA Football

Time for my weekly posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Alabama
  2. Oregon
  3. LSU
  4. Georgia
  5. South Carolina
  1. Florida State
  2. Kansas State
  3. Stanford
  4. West Virginia
  5. Notre Dame
  1. Florida
  2. Texas
  3. USC
  4. Clemson
  5. Ohio State
  1. Oregon State
  2. TCU
  3. Michigan State
  4. Louisville
  5. Oklahoma
  1. Mississippi State
  2. Baylor
  3. Rutgers
  4. Northwestern
  5. Boise State

Also considered: Arizona, Michigan, Nebraska, UCLA, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Ohio, Arizona State, Louisiana Tech, Virginia Tech, Purdue, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Iowa State, Miami FL, Texas Tech, Minnesota, Washington, San Jose State, Louisiana-Monroe, Western Kentucky, and Missouri.


9/18/2012


NCAA Football

Time for my weekly posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Alabama
  2. LSU
  3. Oregon
  4. Florida State
  5. Georgia
  1. Oklahoma
  2. West Virginia
  3. Stanford
  4. South Carolina
  5. Notre Dame
  1. Texas
  2. Florida
  3. USC
  4. Kansas State
  5. Clemson
  1. Ohio State
  2. Michigan
  3. Louisville
  4. Michigan State
  5. Arizona
  1. TCU
  2. UCLA
  3. Nebraska
  4. Mississippi State
  5. Oklahoma State

Also considered: Northwestern, Baylor, Boise State, Oregon State, Rutgers, Tennessee, Virginia Tech, Ohio, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Iowa State, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Georgia Tech, Utah, Louisiana Tech, Brigham Young, Washington, Arizona State, Western Kentucky, Fresno State, Louisiana-Monroe, San Jose State, and Purdue.


9/10/2012


Changes to Projections

You'll notice on many of the projections now that there's a new piece of data. It's in the Location column under the @ or vs. It generally looks something like this [+2.48]. I'm now calculating the spread coverage a couple of different ways. This one says that the projected line for that game is +2.48. How is this helpful? Well, it's another data point. If you see that Alabama is a 20 point favorite, and the projection says they beat the spread 60.2% of the time, but also see the projected spread as 12.6, then the computer is in disagreement with itself. One algorithm says they will cover, and the other says they won't. Conversely, if Alabama is a 20 point favorite, and the projection says they beat the spread 39.8% of the time, but the projected spread is 34.2, then again the computer is in disagreement with itself. On the other hand, if Alabama is a 20 point favorite, and the projection says they beat the spread 70.2% of the time AND the projected spread is 34.2, then the computer is in complete agreement with itself, that Alabama is likely to beat the spread.

This also allows me to give a projected line farther out in the season, not just one week in advance. Eventually, I'll re-combine these back into one figure, when I can come up with a way to display it that makes sense.

Of course, like everything else, these projected lines should be taken with a huge grain of salt this early in the season. No, I don't really believe that Alabama should be a 46 point favorite over Ole Miss, or a 37 point favorite over Auburn.


NCAA Football

Time for my weekly posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Alabama
  2. LSU
  3. USC
  4. Oregon
  5. Georgia
  1. Oklahoma
  2. West Virginia
  3. Michigan State
  4. Florida State
  5. South Carolina
  1. Clemson
  2. Michigan
  3. Kansas State
  4. Texas
  5. Virginia Tech
  1. Notre Dame
  2. Stanford
  3. Florida
  4. Ohio State
  5. TCU
  1. BYU
  2. Louisville
  3. Arizona
  4. Arkansas
  5. UCLA

Also considered: Boise State, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Mississippi State, Baylor, Oregon State, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, Arizona State, Louisiana-Monroe, South Florida, Ohio, Northwestern, Louisiana Tech, Missouri, Washington, Texas A&M, Iowa State, Toledo, and Texas Tech.

Teams that I'm expecting to move up in the next few weeks: Florida State, Ohio State, BYU

Teams that seem likely to drop from their current spot: Oklahoma, Michigan State, South Carolina


9/5/2012


Why Do The Ratings Keep Changing?

You may have noticed that the NCAA Football ratings are changing nearly every day, even though no games are being played. You're not going crazy. It's really happening, and it's a good thing.

The preseason ratings use quite a bit of the data from last year. That data is phased out rather quickly. In fact, every day, three more days from the previous season are excluded. So, there may not have been any games today, but there were games a year ago today, that are now no longer part of the calculations.

You'll see this happening next week in the NFL, as well.


9/5/2012


NCAA Football

Time for my weekly posting of my rankings and the ridicule that follows.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. Alabama
  2. LSU
  3. USC
  4. Oregon
  5. Oklahoma
  1. Arkansas
  2. Georgia
  3. Florida State
  4. West Virginia
  5. Michigan State
  1. South Carolina
  2. Wisconsin
  3. Clemson
  4. Oklahoma State
  5. Nebraska
  1. Virginia Tech
  2. Texas
  3. Michigan
  4. Notre Dame
  5. TCU
  1. Kansas State
  2. Florida
  3. Boise State
  4. Tennessee
  5. Brigham Young

Also considered: Stanford, Louisville, Baylor, MIssouri, Utah, Texas A&M, Washington, South Florida, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ohio State, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Ohio, Cincinnati, UCF, Virginia, Nevada, Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Miami FL, Iowa Stae, Iowa, Penn State, Texas State, UCLA, Southern Mississippi, North Carolina State, North Dakota State, Purdue, Arizona, Louisiana Tech, Northwestern, and Texas Tech.

Teams that I'm expecting to move up in the next few weeks: West Virginia, Ohio State

Teams that seem likely to drop from their current spot: Oklahoma, Michigan State, South Carolina, Wisconsin


9/4/2012


BCS Ratings

Due to popular demand, I now include a report that shows the current BCS Ratings. I have to do most of the work to update this report by hand, so it won't be out instaneously (right now it shows the preseason ratings, for example), but I'll get it updated as quickly as I can as the polls and computer rankins are released.


NFL Kickoff

NFL Kickoff is tomorrow night when Dallas travels to the New York Giants. Ratings will start being updated sometime early Thursday morning.


Changes to "How'd I Do?" and "If I Knew Then" reports

I didn't work on the updates to these reports over the weekend. I should get to it next weekend.


8/31/2012


NFL Playoff Projection

I found a bug in the NFL Playoff Projection code. Fixed it and re-ran. The results now make more sense to me. But..

Sorry, fans of Cleveland, Indianapolis, Minnesota, St. Louis and Tampa Bay

After I re-ran the simulations, your teams never made the playoffs. Normally, I'd be tempted to say "Better luck next year!", but since the season hasn't even started, I'll just go with "Better luck next week!". These projections will still change quite a bit before the end of the season. If we get to week 7 or 8 and you still don't see your team on the projection list, then it's time to start thinking about next year. But, you'll have figured that out for yourself by then, most likely.


8/31/2012


News Banner

In addition to this news section, I've also added a small news banner to the very top of the screen. It'll be used for showing one or two very short tidbits occasionally. If you tuned in yesterday, you caught a countdown to the NCAA Football Kickoff. It now displays a countdown to the NFL Kickoff. When there is information there, it will be something like that, but most of the time it will be empty.


The NCAA Football season has begun

South Carolina and Vanderbilt played a good game yesterday. I'm impressed with South Carolina. Not because they looked dominant, because they certainly did not. A few more games like that and they'll be looking at second or third place -- at best -- in the SEC East. But all teams have bad days. And you often see them in the first couple weeks of the season. Good teams win in spite of having a bad day. The Gamecocks did not put up their best performance on the road against a Vanderbilt team that is better than people think. And they came out with a win. Kudos to Spurrier and crew.

From the ratings side, it was a relatively uneventful evening. The preseason ratings helped with that. Otherwise we'd have a jumble. The most significant move near the top was that Oregon jumped from #10 to #5. I suspect that is because their early season loss to LSU from last year dropped off the games list for the ratings. That kind of thing will continue to happen over the next few weeks until the computer is only looking at games from this season.


Report tweaks

I continue to make small modifications to the reports. So, don't rub your eyes if they look a little different each time. It's not you. I have a pretty significant change coming up to the "How'd I Do?" and "If I Knew Then" reports. That will likely happen over the extended weekend, but I'm not sure precisely when. It should make them both more useful and easier to read.


8/27/2012


NCAA Football Kickoff

College football begins on Thursday. There are a few good matchups on opening day.

Surprisingly, South Carolina and Vanderbilt kick off their seasons against each other in a rare early season SEC game. Other games of moderate interest to the computer are Texas A&M at Louisiana Tech (has that been postponed due to Isaac? I should check), Washington State @ BYU and UCLA @ Rice.

But the real ride starts on Friday, when Boise State travels to Lansing to face Michigan State. Then on Saturday, get up early for Notre Dame vs. Navy in Ireland. Kick off time is at 9 AM ET. Yes, you read that right. That's followed by a full slate of games through Alabama vs. Michigan from Jerry World that night. It's going to be a long, fun weekend.

If I Had A Vote

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in college football.

  1. LSU
  2. USC
  3. Alabama
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Oregon
  1. Florida State
  2. Georgia
  3. South Carolina
  4. Michigan
  5. Arkansas
  1. Wisconsin
  2. Texas
  3. Michigan State
  4. West Virginia
  5. Clemson
  1. Ohio State
  2. Virginia Tech
  3. Nebraska
  4. Oklahoma State
  5. TCU
  1. Kansas State
  2. Stanford
  3. Florida
  4. Notre Dame
  5. Boise State

Also considered: Louisville, Utah, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, UCF, Auburn, Washington, USF, Cincinnati, North Carolina State, Rutgers


Super Bowl Odds

Preseason odds for winning Super Bowl XLVII are now up. All 32 teams won Super Bowls in my simulations, but once again the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers are overwhelming favorites. The two teams combine to win the Super Bowl in over 50% of my simulation runs. Apparently, my computer really likes the schedule for the Indianapolis Colts, putting them in the playoffs an astounding 77% of the time. Sadly, the computer thinks that Colts fans will have to be happy with just getting there, as they only win the Super Bowl 0.27% of the time. The Rams fare even better, making the playoffs 92% of the time, but only winning the Super Bowl 0.07% of the time.


Performance Improvements

Most of my hoped for performance improvements to the Dashboard are in place. It's almost as fast as I'd hoped. There are a couple more minor tweaks that I think I can make and probably will at some point. Still, it's quite a bit faster and more user friendly than it was even a few days ago.


Finally, as I have mentioned before, I strongly encourage you to set your bookmarks to the new Dashboard. I think in time this will become your favorite page on the site.


8/26/2012

College Football Starts This Week

You'll notice continued small tweaks to the site over the next couple of weeks, but I'm finally just about ready for the season to kick off. I had one major enhancement that I didn't get in, and probably won't this year. I was trying to do some limited projections for the BCS Championship, but the way I wanted to do it is going to be too slow, so I need to rethink the process. I have a similar issue for NCAA Basketball, so hopefully I can come up with something over the next month or two and get it in for that.

As I've mentioned previously, and should be obvious by now, the user interface has been completely reworked this season. There were three reasons for this. First, to give it a more professional looking appearance. The second reason was to improve the performance. Many of the reports last year were abysmally slow. The third and final reason was to make the site more friendly to mobile devices. I think you'll agree that I've accomplished all three tasks, although there's still some work to be done on the third. The only page that still has unacceptable performance in my opinion is the Dashboard. I know how to make it faster, but I've been working on missing features the last week or so, rather than improvements to existing ones. Still, I hope to get that fixed within the next few days. With luck, I'll finish that in time for kickoff on Thursday. Improving the mobile experience will be an ongoing process.

Also, unless you have an ad blocker, you've likely noticed an ad banner at the top of the screen. This needs to be tweaked a bit as well, but will likely remain.

Finally, as I mentioned before, I strongly encourage you to set your bookmarks to the new Dashboard. I think in time this will become your favorite page on the site.

8/23/2012

Preseason Ratings are here!

There are now preseason ratings for both the NFL and NCAA Football. These are essentially the end of season ratings from last year, and will be used as a starting point for ratings for the rest of the season. I go back and forth on whether this is a good idea, and how much value can be obtained by it. I think more in professional sports than in college. The previous season impact diminishes pretty quickly and disappears completely by day 35 of the season. I may turn this back off again next year, if it doesn't seem like it's working. I've had it on before, and turned it off, but I think the recent changes to the ratings algorithm merit another attempt at this. We'll see how it goes.

You may have noticed that the final rankings for both Men's and Women's College Basketball have changed. This is due to the changes in the algorithm that I describe below. I went ahead and ran the new algorithm against last season to test it. Overall, I'm comfortable with the results.

The UI has changed significantly this season, as you've probably noticed already. You can now save most of the reports to Excel or print them to PDF. Don't attempt saving them to Excel on an iPad, or probably an Android device either. :) There's still some UI inconsistency in the site. That will be fixed in time. Almost all of the work on this site comes from one person working in his spare time. I usually start doing the seasonal updates around mid-July and finish in late August. That's about all the time I can devote to this each year, so every year I'm left with a list of unfinished and incomplete tasks. Remaining tasks that will happen in the next few weeks are an additional report for college basketball, and a better playoff/tournament projection than the one I used last season.

You'll also notice that most of the information has moved behind a registration firewall. Currently, there's no charge for any of the info. At some point, I may require payment for the gambling specific information, but that's for the future. But requiring you to register and login allows us to provide a more personalized experience. There's a new user-specific Dashboard, where you can get an at-a-glance overview of how your favorite teams are doing. In addition, I've been working hard on improving the overall performance of the site, although there's still room for improvement here. Finally, there are enhancements to the ratings engine itself that will allow it to work better with teams wth a lot of cupcakes on their schedule. These schedules have confused the engine in the past, and caused it to rate some teams too low (Arkansas football 2011), and some teams too high (Michigan football 2010). Finally, there will be projections against the moneyline as well as the current projections vs. the spread and straight up winners.

Schedules are now up for NCAA Football and the NFL.

I strongly encourage you to set your bookmarks to the new Dashboard. I think in time this will become your favorite page on the site.

Minor updates have been made to the FAQ and Coming Soon pages.

Finally, I at long last give credit where it's due on the About page.